Description: This paper analyzes climate change's impact on corn yield and insurance claims in Southern Minnesota through an analysis of how temperature and precipitation are expected to change over the next 30 years.

Description: The method described in this paper is to allocate surplus to each category of business and reserves in proportion to its estimated effect on an insurer's surplus variation. Risk load for each category of business is then selected so that the return on allocated surplus for each category is equal to the overall return on surplus. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that presents a model for examining the effect of various relationships between mortality rates and lapse rates on the mortality experience of a cohort of insured lives. It takes an individual approach rather than the aggregate approach used in traditional methods of analyzing selective lapsation. The model assumes that insured lives are healthy at policy issue, but may later move to an impaired state from which the lapse rate is zero. Associated with each insured is an unobservable 'risk level' random variable, which reflects the heterogeneity of the insured group. Individual mortality and lapse rates are functions of the risk level. A numerical illustration provides some interesting results obtained using this model.

Description: This paper thoroughly describes risk premium calculation based on an insurance portfolio consisting of policies risks insured over a finite time interval.

Description: This research paper investigates health care costs in the last year of life. This paper looks specifically at the issues of measurement of retiree health care costs when the baseline healthcare costs are measured in terms of the last year of life costs and maintenance costs.

Description: This is a letter from Jan M. Hoem to Arnold F. Shapiro about Exposed-to-risk considerations based on the Balducci assumption and other assumptions in the analysis of mortality.

Description: This paper addresses a study of surplus with the following goals in mind: 1. Determine surplus available for financing additional business, including new ventures. 2. Facilitate measurement of financial performance by line of business consistent with reasonable corporate goals. 3. Provide a mechanism for evaluating alternative strategies based on their estimated marginal effect on the company's ability to meet the above corporate goal. From Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1988, Vol. 3

Description: This paper studies the joint distribution of the time of ruin, the surplus immediately before ruin, and the deficit at ruin. The classical model is generalized by discounting with respect to the time of ruin. The authors show how to calculate an expected discounted penalty, which is due at ruin, and may depend on the deficit at ruin and the surplus immediately before ruin.

Description: These notes are a follow-up to the paper 'Introduction to the Dynamics of Pension Funding' by the same authors and published in Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1976, Vol. 28. The purpose of that paper was to provide an introduction to mathematical principles applicable to pension funding under dynamic conditions of population growth, inflation, and automatic adjustment of benefits. The first note discusses a general contribution formula and a number of special cases and modifications. The second note concerns aggregate cost funding when the actuary uses assumptions about cost factors which differ consistently from cost experience. The final note concerns the variation of the annuity unit under a variable annuity program patterned after the plan employed by the College Retirement Equities Fund [CREF]. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1981, Vol. 1.

Description: This paper introduces a new direction for evaluating numerically survival probabilities pointed out by H. Seal in his book ‘Survival Probabilities: The goal of Risk Theory’. Some of special cases can be considered as a weighted Poisson process with an infinitely divisible mixing distribution. This property is well known for the negative binomial case [gamma mixing distribution].